COGNITIVE BIASES IN THE INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITY: CONCEPTS, CATEGORIES AND MITIGATION METHODS

Abstract

Since US Congressional Committees have assessed that part of the failures of National Intelligence in the September 2001 terrorist attacks and the 2003 Iraq War originated in the analysis, the debate over analytical errors stemming from cognitive biases and techniques to mitigate them has been growing significantly. Cognitive biases are systematic errors that occur as a simplification strategy in information processing and they are predictably repeated under particular circumstances. In the Intelligence Activity, these mental strategies pose a risk for successful Intelligence analysis. Intelligence professionals are trained to develop varied skills, but often are not taught to be aware of their mental models, to analyze their own information processing, and to question their analytical assumptions. Therefore, they are vulnerable to making analysis errors arising from cognitive biases. This article aims to discuss, straightforwardly, comprehensively and objectively, the concept of cognitive biases, to present the cognitive biases that most affect the Intelligence Activity, and to discuss techniques of structured analysis, tools that can mitigate the negative impact of cognitive biases on intelligence.